IMWA Projection Table 7-C
Asbury Theological Seminary and the Broader Protestant Sector
Preamble
This table presents the findings of the IMWA Denominational Severance Projection Unit following eleven days of modeling in response to the United Methodist Church's removal of Asbury Theological Seminary from its list of approved institutions for ordination candidates. Two projection scenarios are presented: a conservative linear model (Scenario A) and the methodologically preferred exponential model incorporating the Ecclesiastical Friction Index coefficient of 0.73 (Scenario B). A sector-wide analysis follows as Table 7-C(ii).
Ecclesiastical Friction Index (EFI): A proprietary coefficient (0.73) derived from the IMWA's analysis of historical denominational severance events dating to 1517. The EFI represents the degree to which each severance event increases the probability and velocity of subsequent severance events within the same institution. An EFI of 0.73 is described by our modeling team as "brisk."
Table 7-C(i): Asbury Theological Seminary — Projected Approval Relationship Terminus
Baseline: 14 approval relationships as of January 2024. Current: 13 (following UMC severance, 2025). Projection origin: June 2026.
| Year | Scenario A Linear (1/yr) | Scenario B Exponential (EFI: 0.73) | EFI-Adjusted Severance Rate | Institutional Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14 | 14 | — | Stable. Pre-event. |
| 2025 | 13 | 13 | 1.00 / yr | Event horizon crossed. |
| 2026 | 12 | 11 | 1.73 / yr | Watching continues. |
| 2027 | 11 | 9 | 2.99 / yr | Concerned but functional. |
| 2028 | 10 | 6 | 5.18 / yr | Concerned and tracking it. |
| 2029 | 9 | 3 | 8.96 / yr | Taking it personally. |
| 2030 | 8 | 1 | 15.50 / yr | Final relationship under review. |
| 2031 | 7 | 0 ⁽¹⁾ | 26.82 / yr | Terminal state achieved (Scenario B). |
| 2035 | 3 | — | — | Scenario B not applicable. |
| 2038 | 0 ⁽²⁾ | — | — | Terminal state achieved (Scenario A). |
Table 7-C(ii): Sector-Wide Protestant Seminary Approval Relationship Projection
Scope: All accredited Protestant seminaries maintaining at least one denominational approval relationship as of 2026. Theological Disagreement Coefficient: 0.73 (constant). Modeling assumes the Asbury event functions as a sector-wide triggering incident. The IMWA acknowledges this assumption is aggressive. The IMWA also notes that aggressive assumptions have historically proven correct.
| Year | Avg. Approvals Per Seminary | Cumulative Severance Events | Seminaries at Zero Approvals | Sector Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.3 | 1 | 0 | Nominal. One cloud on the horizon. |
| 2035 | 9.1 | 847 | 3 | Noticeable. Committee has been formed. |
| 2050 | 4.7 | 3,291 | 41 | Significant. Several committees. |
| 2065 | 1.2 | 8,104 | 189 | Critical. Committee on Committees convened. |
| 2087 | 0.3 ⁽³⁾ | 14,440 | 412 | Post-approval era. Historically unprecedented. |
| 2091 (est.) | 0.0 | — | All ⁽⁴⁾ | Sector-wide terminal state. Modeling complete. |
Footnotes
- Terminal state under Scenario B assumes EFI acceleration continues unabated. The IMWA acknowledges that intervening theological convergence, ecumenical goodwill, or the unexpected emergence of a unifying doctrinal framework could alter this trajectory. The IMWA assigns this a probability of 4%.
- Terminal state under Scenario A assumes the linear rate holds constant at one denominational severance per year. This is the conservative estimate. The IMWA does not recommend relying on conservative estimates. The IMWA includes them for the comfort of readers who prefer not to look directly at Scenario B.
- The 0.3 average represents a sector in which most seminaries have exhausted their approval relationships and a small number of outliers maintain a single remaining relationship, described by our analysts as "hanging on by a thin denominational thread." The IMWA is watching those threads.
- "All" refers to all institutions included in the 2026 baseline dataset. Institutions founded after 2026 are not modeled here. The IMWA notes that any seminary founded after 2026, with full knowledge of this table, would be making a theologically informed but statistically inadvisable decision.
Prepared and certified by the Denominational Severance Projection Unit,
Institute for Ministry Watch Accountability.
Rev. Thaddeus Overlook-Barnes
Senior Fellow for Watching Studies
Chair, Committee on Projections
Institute for Ministry Watch Accountability
The IMWA Projection Table 7-C is provided for informational and accountability purposes. It should not be construed as theological advice, denominational counsel, or a prediction of divine action. The IMWA does not predict divine action. The IMWA watches. These are different activities.